Development Of A Clinical Prediction Model For In-Hospital Mortality Among Patients With Heart Failure: A Tertiary Care Hospital Study

Abstract

Heart failure (HF) now represents a major and growing global public health challenge, affecting an estimated 26 million individuals worldwide, with prevalence that is continuing to rise due to population ageing and improved survival from cardiovascular diseases (Savarese & Lund, 2017). In the United States alone, approximately 5.7 million people are currently living with HF, and this number is projected to exceed 8 million by 2030, reflecting a nearly 46% increase in prevalence (Bozkurt et al., 2023, Gola MSG et al 2024). Cardiovascular diseases, including myocardial infarction and stroke, remain leading contributors to HF burden, with approximately 805,000 myocardial infarctions occurring annually in the United States (Virani et al., 2020).

The burden is even more concerning in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in India, where cardiovascular mortality rates are disproportionately high. India accounts for nearly one-fifth of global deaths due to ischemic heart disease and stroke (World Health Organization [WHO], 2021). Notably, cardiovascular events in India occur at younger ages compared to Western populations, with nearly 50% of myocardial infarctions occurring in individuals under 50 years of age (Arora et al 2019, Zeitouni 2020). Mortality rates following HF diagnosis in India are also significantly higher, reflecting gaps in early detection, risk stratification, and long-term disease management.